Certain Retreat, Uncertain Future: NATO Withdrawal From Afghanistan
Aims to withdraw troops from Afghanistan by
December 2014 bring to surface the implications this would have for the country
in the backdrop of a possible Taliban retaliation. Notably, what would this
signify for Afghans who have witnessed key changes in their country?
By 2010 the evidence that the war had reached a
stalemate could no longer be ignored and consequently NATO begun to make preparations
for withdrawal. Yet, despite the violence, the amount of casualties (civilian
for the most part) and controversies surrounding this NATO intervention, much
has been achieved in Afghanistan, achievements which risk being undone as NATO
troops leave the country.
Upcoming elections in April may be a welcome
sight and a sign that Afghanistan is on the right tract for democracy but the Taliban
threat is far from gone and jeopardises much of the country’s accomplishments. Afghanistan
is far from preventing a slide back into repression. Furthermore, as one conflict
comes to an end another one seems likely to implode. The risk of a potential
civil war between the Afghan government and the Taliban is a daunting prospect,
particularly given the fact that Afghanistan’s security forces heavily depend on
foreign funding, though they are stronger and more capable than they were
back in 2001. Whilst funding for Afghan security troops may diminish following
NATO’s withdrawal, the Taliban reportedly turnover approximately $100 million annually
from taxing poppy farmers (Afghanistan is responsible for 90% of the world’s
opium production)[i].
But the withdrawal of NATO would not only have security
implications. Similarly to its security forces, the country’s economy, which is
largely drug dependent, also heavily relies on foreign aid. Funding from abroad
has increased the living standards in general and has hugely developed the
infrastructure of the country. Telephone and internet developments have connected the local
population to the rest of the world. With 20 million phone subscriptions in a country
of 30 million the mobile industry is now a major employer[ii]. More
importantly though, Afghans are very anxious to retain the progress made in
terms of human rights.
The fall of the Taliban led to some vital
changes. The country now has an active media,
more children now go to school, and life and employment prospects have generally
improved. More significantly, the lives of women in the country have also been
enhanced. Afghanistan’s current constitution offers men and women equal protection
and guarantee women the right to access education, political participation
and economic opportunity. Women’s education has made encouraging progress with
an Oxfam report estimating that school enrolment for girls has risen from 5,000 to 2.4
million (February 2011). In turn this has had important significances for helping
eradicate poverty and improve health in the country. Mortality rates for
children under 5 years old are 50% lower among mothers who have attended
primary school. In general, educated women are less likely to die during
childbirth and more likely to send their own children to school[iii].
Educating women also increases their earning prospects. Global Partnership For
Education estimates that each additional primary school year increases a woman’s
earning potential by 10 to 20%. Yet although women have the right to vote and
work, discrimination and gender-violence persist, and Afghanistan is still
considered to be the most dangerous country for a woman to live in. Practices
such as the stoning of women who have committed 'adultery' (the term is not strictly bound to physical intimacy outside of wedlock) continue in
Taliban-occupied areas and should the Taliban regain control of the country, whether in part or completely, this would plunge a huge number of women into
traditional roles, excluding them from public life and destroying their
entrepreneurship, with disastrous consequences on their well-being and Afghanistan’s
economy.
Finally, it is important to note that a Taliban-controlled
Afghanistan would implement strict cultural regulations something which would be
damaging to the country's of late rise in modernity and the culture boom. The
music scene has just begun to re-emerge after being prohibited under the
Taliban rule. New genres such as rap and hip-hop have been explored and received
positively by Afghanistan’s youth who now have the option to express themselves through different media. There are even a few tales of female rappers[iv]
and the television industry has blossomed with the creation of dozens of
national and provincial television stations.
There is still much room for development, creativity
and hope in Afghanistan. But the Taliban menace threatens to thwart all of
that. Furthermore, Afghanistan itself is still riddled with corruption,
inefficiency and divisions[v].
It remains one of the poorest countries on earth and the fragility of its accomplishments
risk being dismantled whether deliberately by the Taliban or unintentionally by
the government. The importance for the next government to consolidate these realisations
cannot be stressed enough should Afghanistan hope to continue down the road of
progress.
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