Is Madrid's Rejection of the Independence Referendum Breaking Catalan Aspirations?

A recent anti-abortion law, a massive debt at the heart of the European financial crisis, an unemployment rate that still lingers at 26 per cent and a determined separatist politician in the region of Catalonia; Spain has not been giving the headlines a break and is yet again in the spotlight with Artur Mas, President of the Generalitat de Catalunya, pushing for further discussions of a referendum in November saying that a law can be refused but the willpower of the Catalan people cannot be ceased.

Artur Mas

The Government of Catalonia announced at the end of 2013 that a referendum would be held on Sunday 9^th November 2014. After long hours of discussion regarding the wording, this will be comprised of a two-part question: “Do you want Catalonia to become a state?” to which an affirmative response will subsequently be followed by “Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state?” Refusing to hear any talk of a separation, the Government of Spain has made it clear that it will not allow such a referendum, arguing that the constitution does not allow secession.

Despite an increase in supporters of Catalan independence since the end of Franco’s oppression of Catalan autonomy, language and culture, who have expressed their separatist desires through mass demonstrations drawing up to 1.5 million people in the streets of Barcelona and non-binding and unofficial referendums held in municipalities of Catalonia in 2009 and 2011, the Government of Spain stubbornly refuses to break the silence; a somewhat undemocratic choice on the international stage, which places it in a delicate situation.

So what are the cons and what are the pros?

Although perhaps a little far-fetched, allowing Catalonia to gain its independence would open Pandora’s box, causing a domino effect in Belgium, Italy or Scotland (there has also been talk of Brittany in France, on second thoughts: very far fetched), where already existing nationalist movements are wanting to split Europe up into a mosaic of micro-states. As is already happening with the Scottish debate of its European Union, euro-zone and single market membership, this would cause some potentially dangerous conflict. Furthermore, with a regional debt of €42 billion to the EU, an independent Catalonia would not be of help to the current economic problems if it had the choice of applying to EU’s bail-out mechanism.

On the other end of the spectrum we have those arguing that they are part of a distinct, proud nation with its own language, history, culture and flag and that their separate identity survived Franco’s brutal attempts to suppress the Catalan language, used by 11.5 million speakers, which since 1979 is the joint official language of the region with Spanish, in the decades after the Civil War. Supporters of independence fear that the lack of respect from Madrid will mean that the culture will be absorbed. Secondly, with the highest rate of exports (and imports) in the country, Catalonia also has a higher GDP than the rest of Spain. Catalan exports of industrial products amounted to a total of €54,96 billion last year, representing 25% of Spain’s exports in 2013. Not to mention the 2014 figures that are showing yet further increase in Catalonia’s exports, highlighting positive trends in the Catalan economy. It is thus unsurprising that the nationalists want to free themselves from Madrid.  The refusal of the Government of Spain to grant Catalonia fiscal autonomy, enjoyed by the Basque country, confirms to the nationalists that only through independence will Barcelona take control of its economic future. Lastly, as already mentioned, it would be undemocratic of the Government of Spain to prohibit the right of self-determination through a referendum. It is the choice of the people.

Source: Pankaj Ghemawat (2012). 
After France (10%), the next three biggest destinations of Catalonia’s exports are the regions of Andalucia (8%), Aragon (7%) and Valencia (7%), meaning Spain would be Catalonia’s main trading partner, accounting for more than one third of its trade. According to the economist, there is thus much to gain from staying within the larger political entity.

Several polls have been carried out by institutions regarding the public opinion on their desire for independence in Catalonia. The results obtained by Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, CEO (Center for Opinion Studies) shows a general increase in votes in favour of the region’s separation. We notice that in between the 2^nd series of votes in 2011 and the 3^rd series of votes in 2013 there has been an 11.8% percentage point increase. The most recent polls show that 54.7 per cent of Catalans want independence, many of which believe that the cause of the economic crisis is the rest of Spain and that if they get rid of the cause, they solve the problem. Catalonia is the most indebted region in the country. This debt is blamed by many Catalans on what they call fiscal looting, or in other words, the “disproportionate” amount of taxes Catalonia is required to pay to the state in comparison with other regions of the country.

Source: CEO

Speaking on behalf of Mariano Rajoy, the PP’s general secretary, Maria Dolores de Cospedal, has said this week that she will be making it clear in Congress that sovereignty is not a question of centuries or a certain party, but that it concerns the entire Spanish population, and is above all, non-negotiable. However, this is not to say that Mas will back down on his separatist efforts. After yet another rejection from Madrid, we must wait to find out how far the Catalans will go in their fight for freedom.