Part I: The Rise of Anti-Elite Sentiment and the Fate of King Felipe

“In a normal democracy, should the head of state be chosen on the basis of his blood or at the ballot box?” 

Pablo Iglesias

To much of Spain’s delight, on the morning of June 2nd 2014, Juan Carlos made a public announcement of his abdication in favour of his son Felipe, having reigned the country for 39 years following the death of Franco in 1975. That evening, the streets of Madrid and more specifically, Puerta del Sol, home to los indignados and many of the capital’s youth-led movements in the last years, were flooded with Republican flags and citizens demanding a referendum on the future of Spain’s monarchy. As we know, this was ignored, and Georgetown educated, former Olympic yachtsman and polyglot Felipe succeeded to the throne two weeks later. How democratic. 

A Fragile Monarchy

Up until now, King Felipe and his wife Queen Letizia have managed to cultivate a low-key image and stay out of scandals and tabloids. In fact, he comes across as rather well intentioned and in touch, compared to his father in recent years.  He has not only demonstrated this during his visit to the gay and lesbian community a week into his new role, but especially through his sensitive approach regarding the Catalan issue – still a major concern for Spain. New king, new times. However, unfortunately for Felipe, some less-principled members of the royal family haven’t helped pave the way for an easy ride into his new job; not to mention the fragile economy, drive for Catalan independence and mistrust of political institutions. Juan Carlos claimed his decision to abdicate was a personal one. But that’s far from true. As the country fell deeper and deeper into financial crisis, Juan Carlos’ popularity from the important role he played in the transition to democracy – especially after successfully fighting off a right-wing military coup in 1981 - became something of the past. Let me list some of the reasons here:

• Low point: revealing of Juan Carlos’ luxurious elephant hunting trip to Botswana shortly after telling a reporter that he was distraught and having trouble sleeping because of unemployment rates in the country in 2012. 
• Long-running corruption investigation into Princess Cristina (Felipe’s sister) and her husband Iñaki Urdangarin, accused of embezzlement. 
• Urdangarin’s sexist email scandal. 
• And the post-abdication cherry on top: no longer immune from prosecution since retiring, the Spanish Supreme Court has agreed to examine a paternity suit against Juan Carlos filed by a Belgian woman who claims to be his daughter. 

We are not surprised that polls showed a drastic decrease in Juan Carlos’ popularity towards the end of his reign. And King Felipe, well aware of the royal scandals, is the one who has to pick up the pieces by promoting more openness and transparency for the monarchy.

Juan Carlos & Felipe

A Steer to the Left: Juan Carlos 0 -1 Podemos

So what does all of this have to do with the decline of Spain’s two-party system (centre-left, PSOE and centre-right, PP) and the rise of Podemos (We Can)? Well, as head of state, the monarch plays a key role in politics. However, with political dynamics changing like they have been in Spain in the past year, Felipe could soon find himself in a complex situation. Spanish citizens linked his father with Spain’s problems: economic mismanagement, unemployment and corruption, to name a few. This is when Podemos stepped in. The new left wing party led by Pablo Iglesias emerged over the last year primarily as a result of these problems, and unlike PSOE or PP, this party doesn’t back the monarchy. In November 2014, Iglesias stated that Spaniards would get to vote in a referendum on the future of the monarchy if his party were to win the next general elections. Needless to say that with statements like these, the high increase in voters gained by Podemos as well as the rise of anti-monarchist, anti-institutionalist sentiment across the country are a threat to the King. His fate lies in the next general elections. Like Greece, Spain is likely to experience a far left shift as a result of years of austerity measures that have brought voters to the edge. 

With regards to the bipartisan political system, Spain’s post-fascist era has been governed by the alternating PSOE and PP, both of which have been embroiled in their own respective corruption scandals. Podemos has provided those who flooded the streets of Spain during anti-austerity protests with a way to vent their frustration and anger against the corrupt governing institutions that has failed to protect them. Last year, despite very low turn out, the European elections enabled 4-month-old Podemos to make a name for itself, taking 8%  of the vote (bearing in mind PP and PSOE, which always get 70% between them in national elections, got 16% and 15.8%, respectively). This rise in popularity, albeit criticized for lacking concrete ideology, has since grown very steadily. Iglesias’ promise to reverse austerity and tackle corruption reminds Spaniards of their reasons for taking over Puerta del Sol 4 years ago. Last week, following Syriza’s election in Greece hundreds of thousands flocked to the streets of Madrid again. They came from all over the country (260 buses full), urged by Iglesias to help show support and strength for his election campaign. 

Puerta del Sol, Podemos rally, 31st January 2015

Spaniards, justly so, want the government to act in the interest of its people. And in our time, having a monarch as the head of state is old fashioned. King Felipe’s academic background and new era ideals certainly seem suitable for ruling 21st century Spain. However, the country achieved ‘democracy’ status in 1977 following the first post-Franco elections, and there is nothing more undemocratic than not being able to elect a head of state - who is also commander-in-chief of armed forces, might I add. Also, the constitution cannot be used as an excuse for not changing this position of power. It has been used as Rajoy’s main argument to deny Catalans of their independence, yet when it comes to making amendments on equalising the succession law for King Felipe’s daughter (in case a royal baby boy is born), the supreme law of Spain suddenly becomes open to change. Using the constitution ‘as they please’ is in itself a form of abuse of power; the type that Spain needs to detach itself from.  

All in all, Podemos’ rise in popularity amongst the masses demanding for a republic to be restored is certainly a threat for the new king and will only become a challenge if the party wins the general elections. We must however, realise that although the left wing populist party has been a fantastic tool for mobilising the desperate and frustrated population, it might not have what it takes to run the country (in which case, Felipe is still safe for a few years). As stated by Foreign Policy's James Badcock, the king's best case scenario would be a PSOE-led government, where Pedro Sanchez, the party's leader would be willing to make constitutional reforms in order to ease the pain of social inequality and reduce corruption.

There is still much debate regarding Podemos' political stance and ideologies and more importantly regarding its solutions for Spain. However, enough has been said… Part II will come shortly, exploring in more depth the challenges that face Podemos and its credibility. Is the party just getting emotional reaction from the masses or can it go far in the next elections?

Pablo Iglesias