Why François Hollande Should Not Resign

 It has been a rough and chaotic two and half years for France under François Hollande’s leadership. France’s current presidency has failed to pull the country out of the economic challenges it faces (INSEE , France's national institute of statistics, has just slashed its economic growth forecast for the rest of 2014) and has deepened the social and political crisis. The president’s approval rating are at an all-time low (13% this September, down by 4% the previous month), making him the most unpopular French president in the history of the 5^th Republic, and last month’s parliamentary elections saw his Socialist Party lose the upper house. Disillusioned, frustrated and angry, the French are, and have been for a while, either calling out for his resignation or are hopelessly waiting for May 2017 when the next French presidential elections will take place. But François Hollande cannot and should not resign. As worrying and desolating the country’s economic problems are, France should pay attention to a more pressing matter, its socio-political crisis.

If there is one thing Hollande’s mandate has achieved, it is to highlight the fact that France is a socially and politically divided country. Socially, the crisis bears its origins in the failure to address the socioeconomic gap through the demise of socioeconomic mobility mechanisms. Politically, the disillusions and discontent fostered by far-removed politicians from both of France’s mainstream political parties have given credibility and a voice to extreme parties, notably the far-right.

In such a multicultural and ethnically diverse but also seemingly modern country, it is shocking to see people take to the streets chanting homophobic slander and passing it off as freedom of speech and the protection of family values. It is outrageous to see that anti-Semitism is not taken seriously with popular French comedians not being sufficiently punished for using anti-Semitism as comedy material. It is desolating to see the lack of solidarity among the French, with the rich and famous leaving a country that has largely contributed to their economic success. And it is disgusting to see that we have not learnt from our past mistakes and continue to find scape goats amongst minorities as an answer to our economic problems. 

As the going gets tough the French have turned on each other, whether its politicians (both from same and opposite parties) bickering with each other, or the local population shouting and violently clashing with one and other over societal values. François Hollande, and his series of political gaffs, his private life scandals, his incapacity to make a decision when it comes to economic matters, has also been of little help in calming down the socio-political situation. His social reforms have been rejected by many: some have criticised them for diverting the attention from economic matters whilst for others, they are an attack on French culture and society. Incidentally, these reforms have highlighted that the French are more conservative than they appear. But whether this is due to conservatism or the economic climate, the hostilities towards France’s minorities, are worrying and one can only dread what things will be like if ever a far-right party was to be voted in at the next presidential elections.

In the last few years, le Front National has been enjoying much success in French politics. Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration and anti-Europe party has made some important wins in both the French municipal elections, the European parliamentary elections and has just won its first ever seats in the French Senate. Mrs Le Pen claims this is proof that her party’s ideals are being increasingly adopted by the French population. In such a context, resignation would be the most foolish thing François Hollande could yet do to his country. The Socialist Party’s main opponent, the right-wing  UMP party, has not been having a smooth ride since their loss of the presidency back in 2012. The leadership crisis between François Fillon and Jean-François Copé later followed by the Bygmalion affair which brought to light an overbilling scandal during Nicolas Sarkozy’s 2012 presidential campaign, has weakened the party and reduced its credibility. The UMP party also needs to deal with its controversial former party leader, Nicolas Sarkozy, and his claims that he wishes to return to French politics, something which could disrupt the internal peace of the UMP, but also cost them voters, given that Sarkozy’s mandate was characterised by a heavily divided French electorate heavily and many “anti-Sarkozy” protests.

Thus, the National Front emerges as the only legitimate party from France’s political midst. The lines of the French political spectrum have been blurred, with the French no longer considering the Socialist Party as a left-wing party, and turning increasingly to Marine Le Pen as an answer to France's problems. Even traditional leftists are withdrawing their support for a party they now call the gauche caviar (Caviar-eating Leftists). As a result, it looks like the next presidential elections  will be dominated by the right. But if Hollande dissolves the National Assembly now and calls upon new presidential elections, the Socialist Party will not feature in these elections. For all its wrongdoings (or “nodoings”) these past two years, it would be a tragedy for France to have a right-dominated election especially when the outcome of the elections could sway in favour of the National Front. Should Marine Le Pen become the head of the French state, who is to say that, like Hollande, she will not push through some hard-line reforms? And even if she does not, her current anti-immigration and anti-Europe stance, as well as her party’s strong history of racism is enough to make us worry what would happen to France.

If Hollande stays until 2017 he gives France the time to have a political wake-up call. He enables the UMP and the Socialist Party to revise their strategy and put forward some genuine and legitimate candidates, not uncharismatic or celebrity-seeking candidates. The two parties need to unite (at least in ideals) in the fight against the far-right should they want to even be within a fighting chance of beating the far-right. France is not ready politically for elections and socially, France would be more damaged and divided than it has been during Hollande’s mandate than it will be should the far-right seize power.